Stock Market: Price Action Analysis (Feb 2022)

Stock Market: Price Action Analysis

 hey hey what's up my friends so welcome/back to this month's price action/analysis where i share with you the best/trending markets that i'm seeing in 

Themarkets right now

 so we cover stocks we/cover forex commodities and whatnot so/let's kick off right with the stock/market because that's where i'm seeing/the action lies right now so if you look/at the s p 500 recently right we have a/pullback a relatively steep pullback/right from 4800 down to about the low of/4200 so if you look or rather if you do/the math right then it's about a 15/decline i'm just i'm just calculating at/the top of my head about a 15 decline/and if you look back historically on the/s p 500 pullbacks is perfectly right/normal right in the stock market or any/market because you need pullback right/for the trend to sustain itself you know/whether the wick holders they get you/know uh washed out new buyers to come in/the train continue itself and the cycle/rings repeat itself so a trend right/it's only sustained sustainable when/there is you know app and flow in the/market when there is a pullback a/continuation of the move or pull back/etc so if you look back right/historically with this you know pull/back here pull back here pull back here/pull back pull back pull back i'm just/kind of like drawing the obvious one i'm/seeing over here here here and the more/recent ones over here so when you are/trading stocks right it's uh perfectly/sound right to have pullback you know/anywhere between 10 to 20 or even 30/pullback right it's normal right but/what i would say abnormal if you have a/pullback that is uh/larger than 30 you know 40 50 and/probably we are in a bear market in a/recession and that's where you want to/you know shift your/your uh buyers from bullish to bearish/so that's uh one thing to share another/thing to add is so it's very important/right to have a line or rather an area/on the chart where you tell yourself if/the price if the market/breaks below that level right you will/stop being bullish you will stop buying/stocks instead you would rather want to/remain in cash so for me that level/right now on this chart is around the/4200 price point okay so if the price or/if the smp 500 breaks and close below/this area of support if it comes down/lower breaks close below it right i will/stop being bullish i will stop buying/stocks okay and whatever positions i/have for running whatever cash i have/i'll just let it remain in cash i will/stop buying stocks so until that level/is broken right uh i will still remain/bullish in the stock market and of/course all right like all/traders out there right i have my share/of losses as well when this stock market/came down lower this pullback i got/stopped out on a number of positions and/i want to share them with you right now/because that is kind of like the reality/of trading there's no way of not uh/having losses in the stock market so let/me share with you one which i i already/took i'll share with you this one first/this one i spoke about last uh i think/on the previous month's market analysis/i said i was bullish on this stock/called marvel technologies right you can/see that this trend is in a nice uptrend/price coming towards this area of/support with a nice bullish price/rejection i got long on the next candle/right so on this next candle i got long/okay then i had my first target right/just before this swing high right but of/course before the price can reach my/target what happened is that this stock/pretty much collapsed down lower so i/got a loss i got hit on this loss right/when the overall

 stock market 

correct so/again i'm not spared i have losses/myself as well another trade that i also/had a loss is asana/okay just to walk you through so this/one over here/i had a entry trigger right to go along/when this uh stock right was uh forming/this bull flag pattern in this upgrade/so you can see this stock is in an/uptrend it from a nice blue flag break/and close above it i went long and i had/a trailing stop-loss i was looking to/ride this long-term uptrend higher and/again what happened is again uh again i/pretty much caught the top right i/bought right at the highest before the/stock uh collapsed down lower and hit my/trailing stop-loss so again uh i have/losses myself i don't hide it right i/just want to share with you that you/know as a trader right no matter how/many years you've been trading right you/will still see losses right when the/especially when you trade stocks and the/overall stock market makes a pullback/you will almost i won't say guarantee/right but you are very likely to see/losses on across the board as well okay/so those are a few things to share with/you so moving on right uh opportunities/that i'm seeing right now so there are a/few opportunities in the oil sector so/if you look at the just i'll just share/with you the oil/sector we can look at the brand crude/oil you can see that it's pretty much a/very nice uh uptrend right since i think/the last one year so ever since the/price went negative in the futures/market for wti this is the brand crude/oil by the way right ever since the wti/went negative for the futures market the/oil market if you don't know i'm talking/about never mind right just just know/that the oil market over the last couple/of years very nice bullish uptrend and/this right/translate right to individual oil stocks/which are also in an uptrend so a few/oil stocks which are i would say worth/keeping a lookout let me just walk you/through first one is/cop concoct philips/hold on i'm a cop right this concoct/phillips right so there this is the oil/company so you can see that oh this is/similar the price section of this is/similar to the oil uh market which i/shared with you a little brand crude oil/or wtr they look similar because this is/an oil stock so if you want to look for/opportunities right buying opportunities/in this stock right you can see this/stock is in an uptrend uh why i picked/this one is also because this stock/right had a/positive earnings right over the last/few quarters you can see bits earning/expectation here here here here and you/kind of get my point it's a nice up/trend great so next question is where/can we look for buying opportunities/where is the area of value and from what/i'm seeing over here i would say this is/an let's try the 50ma okay so/50ma uh yeah price slicing a little bit/this one not too relevant so say this/one over here right it's an aerial/valley worth keeping a lookout around/the 80 dollar price point slightly below/the 80/so you can see the this is the swing/high price we tested it once over here/possibly if oil makes a pullback right/this would be the area i'm looking for/for bullish/price rejection right to get/an opportunity opportunity to go along/on this stock so looking something like/a hammer right let's say that's a/entry trigger to go long so you can look/to enter on the next day open stop loss/would go a distance below this low/somewhere about here uh if you're/looking to capture that one swing up/higher i would say possible target could/be just below before the 92 dollar price/point so your risk to reward would be/something like from here right this/would be your your reward re/then from here right to here right would/be your risk so from a risk to reward/standpoint i would say risking a dollar/to possibly make a dollar fifty cents or/more somewhere along those lines i do/not have the exact figures because i i/did not use the tool to measure the risk/to reward but they're about there/assuming that/this is the entry trigger we have/assuming the entry stops in target which/i've just shared with you so this is a/concord philips stock to keep a lookout/another oil stock is mro marathon oil/corporation so you can see it's very/similar to uh concoct phillips very/similar to the oil/market i shared with you if i show you/uh wti okay let's go to futures/oil futures you can see/they look they are i would say they look/similar right not exactly noted for that/but yeah similar so anyway back to mro/marathon oil futures yep so again i'm/bullish on this stock this setup is very/similar to uh concord philips so i don't/think we need to you know talk too much/about it but the key level i will be/looking for is around the 17 price point/all right if the market if this stock/does make a pullback towards this area/of value looking for bullish price/rejection is here to occur before i look/for a long setup to get long on this/particular stock okay so/a few more to share right uh next one/right let's talk about breakout right so/this one here is a morgan stanley this/is not oil this is a bank okay/so you can see that morgan stanley if i/just zoom out a little bit let's go to a/weekly time frame why i like this is/that if you look at the weekly timeframe/this stock right is trading/near all-time highs this is all-time/high i said around 106 dollars so uh/stocks without which are trading at near/all-time highs is bullish because this/tells you that uh the stock is strong/right so this is why it's trading at all/times if a stroke is stock that's not/strong it's not fundamentally sound is/probably at all time lows or just you/know chopping up in the middle of/nowhere so technically right uh whenever/stock is near all-time highs i get i/love right to pay attention to it okay/so again uh you can see this stock over/here if you look at the weekly we see uh/depending which time frame you trade on/i personally i/rather look at the daily time frame you/can see that right now it's making this/consolidation of this rectangle over/here/okay so a simple way to to trade the/the uh this stock sorry is to simply/look to trade the breakout of this uh/this resistance okay so if the stock hit/higher towards this area of resistance/and it breaks and close above it right/you can look to enter to buy right and/to write the trend up higher so if you/are looking to write this long-term/uptrend it doesn't make sense to have/like a trillion stop-loss of let's say/five percent or maybe ten percent you/will/very obviously you will have a good/chance of getting stopped up because you/know if you look at this stock right it/swings uh/it

 swings up 

and down right so you can/from here it swings from 100 and like/106 dollars down to 92 dollars that is/like how much is that that is like uh i/don't know about ten percent 106 minus/ten dollars in 96 so about 15 decline/okay over here so if your trading stop/loss is like five percent ten percent/you are very likely to get you know/stopped out of this trade so you know if/you want to write the long term uptrend/of this stock have a wider trailing stop/loss i like to use a volatility uh to/trail my stop loss or one ways you can/use the average true range indicator/this indicator is called the chandelier/crosstalk it takes into account the/volatility of this stock and then it/adds a multiple to it so in this case/it's actually a 8 atr trailing stop loss/the multiple is eight okay so it's/something you could consider if it is/too wide for you you can reduce down to/five six you know it's up to your/preference but for me i like to go with/uh eight eight right so if i do catch/the trend okay you can see that i would/possibly hold on to this stock for quite/a while all right and i'm fine with it/because i like to just hold stocks not/do anything and kind of like get paid/right for being on the right side of the/trade so that's my my style/okay so this is a morgan stanley a/potential breakout on this stock another/one is our al koa corporation okay you/can see again this one here this stock/is bullish as well if you look at the/weekly time frame you know this one here/it's uh not near all-time highs but/multi-year highs okay all-time highs was/probably back in uh/2007. okay so right now we're near/multi-year highs around 65 this stock uh/is recovering i would say on the path to/recovery from its all-time highs right/so now it's on the path to recovery so/right now you can see that this stock/right is still uh right now it's/consolidating over here okay and then/possibly about to stage a breakout of/this high so again/a couple of ways you can look to trade/this so if we do get a pullback this/would be the level that you want to pay/attention to around here right there's a/pullback towards this swing low/okay stock would come up and then/reverse and give you a possible/setup right at this around this 55 level/so you can look for a bullish entry/trigger again something like a hammer a/bullish engulfing pattern if there is/that could be an/entry trigger for you to to get long/otherwise right you could for those of/you who are comfortable trading/breakouts or i can look to trade the/breakout right of this/high so right a break off this high/sorry i'm breaking close above it and/again uh trailing stop loss i prefer to/go with like a a wider trailing/

stop-loss 

in terms of percentage will be/around i'll say/i'll say eight atr trailing stop-loss/that's what i've shared earlier okay/this this indicator here okay so so if/the price let's say just a hypothetical/scenario let's say the price does break/out out of this highs okay and you get/long and the price continues up higher/this blue line right will continue to go/up higher as well so you'll come to a/point where finally the price comes down/lower and break and close below this uh/chandelier crosstalk so this means that/the price has uh hit your trailing stop/loss and it's time to exit the trade so/that's kind of like your signal to get/out right when the trend is starting to/reverse okay so anyway that's a pretty/much it for me if you enjoy such a/market analysis you know you want to get/such a trending trading opportunities on/a weekly basis you can check out our pro/traders age this is a membership that i/offer where i share with you a detailed/breakdown of the markets i'm looking at/each week and every setup that i share/right i would say almost all of them are/trending markets we look at stocks we/look at forex commodities